Sheikh predicts demise of gas as car fuel
By: Drivers.com staff
Date: 2000-07-18
Yet another consequence of soaring gasoline prices has emerged in the U.K., where the prospect of fuel costs rising above £1 per liter threatens chaos at gas stations where pump mechanisms cannot properly display the price.
According to the Times , manufacturers are rushing through technical checks to ensure the pumps can cope if the price breaks through the £1 barrier. Some pumps are only programmed to deal with prices up to 99.9 pence, which looked a distant prospect when they were switched from gallons to liters five years ago with costs at about 60p per liter.
Most pumps' displays incorporate only three digits, including the figure after a decimal point, but the £1 charge per liter will mean that a fourth digit will need to be added.
It looks as though high world oil prices may be around for a while, but how about the longer term?
In an exclusive interview with Sheikh Ahmed Yamani-remember the cool, suave Saudi Arabian oil minister from the OPEC oil crisis days of the early 1970s?-another leading U.K. newspaper, the Daily Telegraph , reports that oil prices may fall dramatically in another five years and that within the next 30 years oil will cease to have value as a fuel.
In the Telegraph interview, Yamani says: "The price will stay high for the moment because of the high demand. But down the road, as you call it, I have no illusion. I am positive there will be, sometime in the future, a crash in the price of oil.
"It is coming because oil companies who generated a huge profit from this price of oil are spending so much on exploration and developments," Yamani says. "The discoveries which took place in the last three months are significant. A huge oil field has been discovered in Kazakhstan. And the Russians have discovered a huge field at the northern part of the Caspian Sea."
"It is not yet announced," says Yamani, "but we know about it. In Yemen, in Egypt, they make discoveries. Then you go to the west coast of Africa, to Angola, Nigeria . . . It all adds up.
"Now we add the Iraqi factor. I don't think the Iraqis will be out of the market for long. So, on the supply side it is easy to find oil and produce it. And on the demand side there are so many new technologies, especially when it comes to automobiles. The hybrid engines-the Japanese started that-will cut gasoline consumption by something like 30 per cent. Then you have the fuel-cell cars. This is coming before the end of the decade and will cut gasoline consumption by almost 100 per cent.
"Imagine a country like the U.S., the largest consuming nation, where more than 50 per cent of their consumption is gasoline. If you eliminate that, what will happen?"
Perhaps the Sheikh is right. After all, as founder and chairman of the Centre for Global Energy Studies, he should know. Certainly, new automotive technologies will make a difference in the longer term.
The hybrid battery-gasoline powered cars mentioned by Yamani, for example, are already with us. Toyota's Prius has been on the market in Japan where 30,000 vehicles are now on the road. The U.S. version, available in summer 2000, will get twice the mileage of conventional cars and run 86 per cent cleaner than the federally required fleet average. The Prius combines a super-efficient gasoline engine with a powerful electric motor. It incorporates an on-board system that charges the batteries while the vehicle is being driven, dispensing with the need to plug into an outside charging source.
The vehicle starts moving under battery power then runs on a combination of gasoline and electric power once it's up to speed. During acceleration, for example, the supplemental power from the motor reduces the load on the engine. The car runs on electric power alone under light loads, as on downgrades.
A similar hybrid, Honda's sporty two-seater Insight, is already available at U.S., Canadian, and U.K. dealerships, and is attractively priced at less than $19,000 US. The Insight has earned the Environmental Protection Agency's top mileage rating-61 mpg in the city and 70 mpg on the highway. In addition, the car also meets California's stringent Ultra-Low Emission Vehicle (ULEV) standards. The Insight also incorporates an advanced aerodynamic design and an aluminum body, over 45 per cent lighter than a comparable steel-bodied model.
Read more articles about greener cars .
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