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By: Yves Page
Date: Tuesday, 25. October 2011
Yves Page works at the Road Safety Department of France's Ministry of Transportation.
In 1984, France introduced a new driver training program for teenagers. The legal age for drivers is 18 years, but the new program, Apprentissage Anticipé de la Conduite (AAC), allows 16-year-olds to begin learning if they agree to take a 20-hour course at a driving school and drive at least 3,000 km under the supervision of a parent or a guardian. Periodic pedagogical controls were put in place to monitor progress. The AAC program presumes that lack of experience is a major factor contributing to young driver accidents. Some insurance companies offer a reduced premium for those who chose this system.
The AAC has been evaluated three times since 1984. These evaluations were mainly aimed at measuring the influence of AAC on young drivers' accident risk. None of the studies have conclusively demonstrated that a young driver, 18, 19, or 20 years old, has a reduced accident probability because of AAC. However, the studies have been able to describe the population of teens who chose AAC comparative to teens who did not: only 10% to 15% of all teenage new drivers opt for the AAC; 64% of AAC learners are men; 81% have a superior education level (university); 48% live in urban areas with less than 20,000 inhabitants, two-thirds choose an insurance guarantee that covers all the risks; and last, their annual kilometers driven is 30% higher than that of teen drivers who did not get involved in the AAC.
The inconsistent results of the first three studies with regards to the influence of AAC on accident risk led us to undertake two new studies. In co-operation with the police, we carried out a random roadside survey in which a questionnaire was given to 1,110 young drivers stopped by the police for speeding offenses during the first four months of 1994. The estimate of the ratios of AAC offenders, compared to the ratios of their numbers as a percentage of the young driver population in general, showed no statistical difference in their behavior as far as speeding is concerned. Results desegregated by age and experience showed that 18-year-old drivers and/or drivers with less than one year's experience who did not choose AAC, were slightly over-represented amongst the offenders.
The second study was aimed at measuring the differences in the probability of having an accident between two groups of drivers (AAC and non-AAC) who had taken insurance in 1992 and 1993 from three different insurance companies. We built a population sample of 3,880 young drivers between 18 and 25 years old. We had information about their age, gender and driving experience, their status (worker or student), their type and age of car, and their number of days of insurance (proxy for exposure).
We used logistic regressions to model the probability of accident (property damage and injury accidents). Results showed that this probability depends on exposure. Students have fewer accidents than workers or unemployed; youngsters driving fast cars have more accidents; teenagers with less than one year's experience have a higher probability of accident; teenagers with a used car more than 10 years old have fewer accidents. The initial driver training (AAC or non-AAC) does not affect the accident probability. Therefore, for our population of youngsters who took car insurance, the influence of AAC on accident risk is far less than expected, and than has been reported by the newspapers (6 or 7 times fewer accidents).
Following these results, proposals have been formulated with regards to AAC program content and the information campaigns that promote the AAC alternative for obtaining a license.
Most notable are:
In 1996, the road safety department undertook a major debate on driver training and licensing with the objective of building a graduated program that would apply to all age groups, including the elderly. This would include, for example, a road safety scholar certificate, a road safety certificate for two-wheelers (mopeds), and special speed and vehicle limitations for youngsters.
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Reegan,
Artclies like this make life so much simpler.